Ukraine has significantly damaged Russia’s oil refining capability this month, eliminating roughly 17 percent of its total capacity through a series of targeted drone strikes, according to a Reuters analysis. This equates to around 1.1 million barrels per day being taken offline.
The strikes focused on ten major refineries, among them the Lukoil facility in Volgograd and a Rosneft plant in Ryazan, as well as sites in Rostov, Samara, Saratov, and Krasnodar regions. Additional attacks hit critical infrastructure such as the Druzhba oil pipeline and the Ust-Luga export terminal and gas processing complex.
These operations have sparked fuel shortages in regions including Russian-occupied Ukraine, southern Russia, and the Far East—areas already grappling with seasonal demand pressures.
Analysts like Sergei Vakulenko from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center emphasize that even partial damage to refinery operations can ripple across fuel supply chains. The strikes have struck at the heart of Russia’s revenue system, reliant on oil exports for nearly a quarter of its budget. Despite Western sanctions, the Kremlin continues to sustain record levels of defense spending.
Ukrainian efforts appear designed to weaken Moscow’s war-funding mechanisms while adding diplomatic leverage ahead of potential peace negotiations. The timing—concurrent with pressure from the U.S. to curb Russian oil purchases and discussions involving Trump, Putin, and Zelensky—may not be coincidental.